Ten years following the UK stumbled into a hurried referendum that divided the nation and unleashed turmoil, a caution is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the same might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering disturbances for which no one is prepared.
That is the message from two prominent journalists from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Unprepared
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a potentially contentious and monumental referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction rapidly," O’Toole said. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Seeks to Stir Debate
The duo have studied the governmental, financial and societal arguments for any structural alteration in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the issue with a tour of public talks that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts everyone, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We do not want a referendum on a binary, vague proposition whose implications have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an highly divided society where the losing side are unable to accept losing and the victorious side are uncertain exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would support.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue that moment is approaching, and a group called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the likelihood, making it uncertain when or if there could be a referendum.
Absence of Serious Debate
Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has hidden the absence of serious debate, said McBride.
"Individuals are often for or against the idea but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has gone on in universities but scarcely any government figures or campaigners are willing to participate with even the essentials. As an example, what sort of state would you want? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the book, none of the commentators endorses unification or the existing arrangement. They authors two pieces that strive for impartiality in detailing the case for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, gathering economic and social figures, previous instances and structural examples.
Arguments encompass flags and symbols, duties, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to inform and encourage dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there hasn't quite been a discussion," commented the writer. "Discussion indicates an recognition of the notion that there may exist good arguments on each side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens claim they favour unity but refuse greater financial contributions or adopting a different emblem to recognise pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin must work out what the offer from nationalist groups is beyond just declaring: 'We seek a united Ireland and we love you'," stated O’Toole.
Likelihood of Public Vote
The journalist thinks a referendum in his generation is probable and that it might occur suddenly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a negligent government minister who states: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, valid points, he stated. "Somebody will win in this matter and somebody will eventually be defeated but all factions has has valuable insights to learn from the alternative viewpoints."
Appeal for Broader Debate
Westminster should engage with the dialogue, urged O’Toole. "This concerns your state. It is a British issue as much as it is an Irish matter."
